La perte du fil conducteur
ambiguïtés et contradictions de la théorie des réalignements
Mots-clés :
Réalignement des élections, lulismo, Identification partisane, André Singer, ÉlectionsRésumé
La théorie des réalignements gagne de plus en plus de force en raison des développements électoraux qui ont eu lieu récemment au Brésil. Le phénomène qui s’est installé suite à la victoire électorale de Lula en 2006, exprime l’idée d’une conversion de blocs d’électeurs. Cela a déterminé un agenda à long terme par rapport auquel ni l’opposition au gouver-nement peut échapper. Cependant, lorsque l’on considère l’évolution du concept dans la littérature nord-américaine, il est possible de conclure que la théorie reçoit, dans sa version nationale, un champ d’application réduit, dans lequel ses principaux fils conducteurs - la durabilité, la notion d’événements critiques et l’identification à un parti - ne sont pas considérés. Face à ce constat, il est entendu que le réalignement est un phénomène historiquement daté et limité à une situation dans laquelle la conduite des électeurs est organisée autour de l’identification à un parti. Par conséquent, le contexte politique brésilien, qui fait face à des taux élevés de volatilité électorale et à un faible engagement partisan, ne semble pas s’adapter à ce genre d’analyse.
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